You hear it all the time: “MMA math doesn’t work”. And for the most part that is a correct statement. It isn’t an exact science. But what MMA math can do is supply a blue print for studying tape on where a fighter has a significant edge. News recently surfaced that Holly Holm will be taking on Bethe Correia in the main event of UFC Fight Night 111. I’m about to show you how MMA math points to Holm being a solid bet to win the bout.
First: for those of you who don’t know what MMA math is, here is a brief crash course.
- If Fighter A beats Fighter B. And Fighter B beats Fighter C. Then Fighter A will beat Fighter C.
- In math language: A>B & B>C, Therefore A>C
Now we all know this isn’t true. There are a multitude of examples proving this logic not only to be flawed, but outright false. However, this is the starting point of the roadmap that allows you to look at each fighters strengths and weaknesses. Specifically what was the downfall of each fighter in the fights in question.
For this example we are going to cite the common opponent of Ronda Rousey, she is a perfect gauge because all three women competed against each other in a 4 month time period. Making her a consistent gauge of both women’s talent at a recent time.
Ronda beat Bethe in a round one TKO flurry, the fight was over before it even began. She quickly overwhelmed Bethe for a first round stoppage. 4 months later, Ronda lost by a violent 2nd round KO by Holm. This points us to analyze Holm and Corriea’s striking. And what do we see when we look at it? Holm is a World Class Boxer. She defended 16 world titles in 3 weight classes as a professional boxer. She made Ronda Rousey, at the height of her career, look like a complete amateur. Holm picked Rousey apart on the feet until ending the fight by head kick KO in the second round.
Now lets re-visit Holm vs. Correia. Bethe Correia is predominately a striker. Yet her striking is wild, sloppy, and she fights with pressure. This is not going to match up well against a taller more calculated counter puncher. Bethe will try to put pressure on Holm with a wild strike, Holm will slip out of range and return fire on angles. If you want to see Holm’s work at her finest just go back and watch Holm vs. Rousey at UFC 193. Then go watch any of Bethe’s fights and tell me if you think this will go any other way.
Cage Prophet says bet on Holly Holm.
Keep in mind: Cage Prophet also used the Holm vs. Rousey fight as a source to call the Nunes vs. Rousey betting pick. Holm vs. Rousey was the first fight that exposed Rousey’s lack of competent striking skills. Previous to this fight we saw Rousey running through all competition by immediately taking the fight to the ground, with the exception of mauling Correia. Based on the knowledge that Nunes was a very dangerous and powerful striker we reviewed the Holm tape and predicted Nunes by KO/TKO. That pick was based on knowing what to look for in match ups, but when common opponents are a factor MMA math can be a powerful tool to start searching for what fighter has an edge.
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